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An analyst has noted that the default frequency in the pharmaceutical industry has been constant at 8% for an extended period of time. Based on this information, which of the following statements is most likely correct for a randomly selected firm following a Bernoulli distribution?

Ⅰ.The cumulative probability that a randomly selected firm in the pharmaceutical industry will default is constant.

Ⅱ.The probability that the firm survives for the next 6 years without default is approximately 60%.

A) I only

B) II only

C) Both I and II

D) Neither I nor II

答案：B

解析：Statement I is false because the cumulative probability of default increases (i.e.,even the highest rated companies will eventually fail over a long enough period).Statement II is true since the probability the firm survives over the next 6 years without default is: (1-0.08)^6 = 60.6%

Using the properties of firms that have already fallen into default/non-default groups to categorize a new observation by how closely it resembles the members already in each of the groups is referred to as:

A) Linear discriminant analysis

B) The k-nearest neighbor approach.

C) Support vector machines.

D) None of the above.

答案：B

解析：K-nearest neighbor is a nonparametric discriminant technique that uses the properties of firms that already have fallen into the categories of interest, and it categorizes a new entrant by how close it resembles the members already in each of the groups.

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